I'm Goin' To Vegas

I was on it yesterday. The seer inside of me predicted that Notre Dame was going to win easily over Villanova with Kyle McAlarney being the leading scorer. I was a little off on Luke Harangody. I said that he wasn't going to get a double-double, but I was wrong on that one. However, I also said that Tyrone Nash was going to get into the game. I also said Tim Abromaitis would play, but I'm not hung up on "details". For the most part, I was right, and that's all that matters.

Branching out from Notre Dame, I also predicted Connecticut over Indiana. Indiana is one of the most overrated teams in the country because they have a good freshman. Here's the truth: Gordon is overrated. Sure, he puts up 30 points on Chicago State and whoever else IU played in their joke of a non-conference, but he never shows up in big games, and he gets fatigued way too fast for a shooting guard. He is not on the same level as Michael Beasley and Derrick Rose. They were ranked at number 8, but all that proves is how college basketball rankings are a joke. Good thing they don't mean anything. IU is 1-2 versus the RPI Top 50, and that one win is over Illinois State. Their best win over a major program is over Georgia Tech. IU has lost to all of the good teams they have played. I expect a first round exit for the Hoosiers. Good thing they play in the pathetic Big Ten to boost their record and give them a better seed in the Tourney.

A Chance We Cannot Mess Up

If there is a must win game in January, this is it. Notre Dame is 0-2 on the road, of course those losses are to Georgetown and Marquette. Villanova is not on their level, but they haven't lost at home this season, and like all Big East teams, they have a great crowd. Villanova is also on a cold-streak, so this game may be as important for the Wildcats as it is for the Irish. Let's see what the stats show.

Starting Lineups

ND
G-Tory Jackson (5-11)
G-Kyle McAlarney (6-0)
F-Ryan Ayers (6-7)
F-Rob Kurz (6-9)
C-Luke Harangody (6-8)
6th man-F Zach Hillesland (6-9)

Nova
G-Corey Fisher (6-1)
G-Scottie Reynolds (6-2)
F-Dante Cunningham (6-8)
F-Shane Clark (6-7)
C-Casiem Drummond (6-10)
6th man-G Malcolm Grant (6-0)

Key Matchups

C Luke Harangody versus C Casiem Drummond

Harangody has been the best player in the Big East this season. He is leading the Big East in points per game and is second in rebounding. He is the early leader for Big East player of the year, and if he gets going, he cannot be stopped. Drummond, however, has the size advantage in this matchup. We've seen Harangody struggle against UConn and Georgetown, who both have big centers. Drummond will need to play stronger than Harangody to stop him, and if he gets into foul trouble, this game is over.

SG Kyle McAlarney versus SG Scottie Reynolds

This one should be interesting. Kyle McAlarney is third in 3-point shooting and Reynolds is 12th. Neither of them is known for their defense, so this could be a scoring-fest from beyond the arc. Whoever can get hot first will have a major advantage.

Team Overviews (Rankings are in Big East and Leaders are in bold)

Record: NOVA (13-4) ND (13-4)
PPG: NOVA (8th, 77.5) ND (5th, 78.6)
Scoring D: NOVA (11th, 69.8) ND (6th, 65.1)
Scoring Margin: NOVA (8th, +7.6) ND (5th, +13.5)
FT %: NOVA (5th, .701) ND (1st, .731)
FG %: NOVA (12th, .444) ND (8th, .451)
FG% Against: NOVA (13th, .443) ND (4th, .394)
3 point FG%: NOVA (7th, .360) ND (1st, .406)
3 point FG% Against: NOVA (15th, .393) ND (8th, .338)
Rebounding Margin: NOVA (5th, +4.6) ND (1st, +9.8)
Blocks Per Game: NOVA (15th, 2.88) ND (11st, 3.59)
Assists Per Game: NOVA (12th, 13.9) ND (1st, 18.7)
Steals Per Game: NOVA (3rd, 8.5) ND (12th, 7.0)
Turnover Margin: NOVA (3rd, +3.88) ND (10, +.1)
Assist/Turnover Ratio: NOVA (13th, 1.0) ND (3rd, 1.4)

Advantage: Notre Dame (12-2-1) over Villanova (2-12-1)

Prediction: Notre Dame blows out Villanova on the road 84-66. Harangody will be held to 15 points and 8 rebounds, but McAlarney will make 6 threes and score 27 points. Notre Dame will have 21 turnovers, but they will still win easily due to Villanova's lack of big men on the bench. I expect to see Tyrone Nash and Tim Abromaitis get playing time in this game as they work their way into the rotation.

Freshman Outlook: Tyrone Nash and Tim Abromaitis are stuck on the depth chart behind Ryan Ayers, Zach Hillesland, and Luke Zeller. Next year, they will get much more playing time as Zach Hillesland will most likely be the starter at power forward. Carleton Scott has been redshirted to give him time to develop his raw talent. He could be phenominal and give Notre Dame a great power forward which they haven't had in a very long time (Troy Murphy was a center).

Beasley Who? Irish Beat Kansas State

Last night, Notre Dame and Kansas State played in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden. Coming into the game, Michael Beasley was the talk of the town. He is only a freshman, but he is leading the nation in points per game and rebounds per game. Luke Harangody and the Fighting Irish must not have cared. The Irish pulled out the big win 68-59 on a big second half performance from the defense.

Michael Beasley is the real deal. Kevin Durant 2.0, but he was held to only two points in the second half. The Irish were playing a 2-3 defense when they are much better fitted for a man-to-man or a 3-2 defense. The Irish's tallest starter is Rob Kurz at 6-9. Luke Zeller is 6-11 coming off of the bench, but as most Irish fans know, we really don't want to see him play too often. The Irish relied on a great trap defense that forced the Wildcats to shoot threes, their major weakness. Kansas State ended up shooting 3 for 20 beyond the arc, and the Irish defense gave up 59 points to one of the best scoring teams in the nation.

Although Harangody and Beasley both scored 19 points, the story of the game has to be Kyle McAlarney. Last year, McAlarney was suspended for an entire season for being arrested for posession of marajuana. McAlarney is from Staten Island, New York, making this the first time he had come home since his freshman year. McAlarney responded by scoring the Irish's last nine points and leading them to victory when it looked like Kansas State was going to make a comeback. The poise shown by McAlarney had been missing this year. He has had a slow transition back to the college game.

Over the past two years, especially in 2005, the Irish had trouble in close games. Notre Dame lost two games this season on game-winning threes in the last minute. Now, the Irish were on the other side of a late comeback. Notre Dame now has a big win away from home that looks great on an NCAA Tournament resume. The Irish have an easy schedule until the Big East play starts. Barring any crazy upset, they should win out until they face some of the great Big East teams. The Irish have needed a big win in the non-conference. Now, they have one.