A Chance We Cannot Mess Up

If there is a must win game in January, this is it. Notre Dame is 0-2 on the road, of course those losses are to Georgetown and Marquette. Villanova is not on their level, but they haven't lost at home this season, and like all Big East teams, they have a great crowd. Villanova is also on a cold-streak, so this game may be as important for the Wildcats as it is for the Irish. Let's see what the stats show.

Starting Lineups

ND
G-Tory Jackson (5-11)
G-Kyle McAlarney (6-0)
F-Ryan Ayers (6-7)
F-Rob Kurz (6-9)
C-Luke Harangody (6-8)
6th man-F Zach Hillesland (6-9)

Nova
G-Corey Fisher (6-1)
G-Scottie Reynolds (6-2)
F-Dante Cunningham (6-8)
F-Shane Clark (6-7)
C-Casiem Drummond (6-10)
6th man-G Malcolm Grant (6-0)

Key Matchups

C Luke Harangody versus C Casiem Drummond

Harangody has been the best player in the Big East this season. He is leading the Big East in points per game and is second in rebounding. He is the early leader for Big East player of the year, and if he gets going, he cannot be stopped. Drummond, however, has the size advantage in this matchup. We've seen Harangody struggle against UConn and Georgetown, who both have big centers. Drummond will need to play stronger than Harangody to stop him, and if he gets into foul trouble, this game is over.

SG Kyle McAlarney versus SG Scottie Reynolds

This one should be interesting. Kyle McAlarney is third in 3-point shooting and Reynolds is 12th. Neither of them is known for their defense, so this could be a scoring-fest from beyond the arc. Whoever can get hot first will have a major advantage.

Team Overviews (Rankings are in Big East and Leaders are in bold)

Record: NOVA (13-4) ND (13-4)
PPG: NOVA (8th, 77.5) ND (5th, 78.6)
Scoring D: NOVA (11th, 69.8) ND (6th, 65.1)
Scoring Margin: NOVA (8th, +7.6) ND (5th, +13.5)
FT %: NOVA (5th, .701) ND (1st, .731)
FG %: NOVA (12th, .444) ND (8th, .451)
FG% Against: NOVA (13th, .443) ND (4th, .394)
3 point FG%: NOVA (7th, .360) ND (1st, .406)
3 point FG% Against: NOVA (15th, .393) ND (8th, .338)
Rebounding Margin: NOVA (5th, +4.6) ND (1st, +9.8)
Blocks Per Game: NOVA (15th, 2.88) ND (11st, 3.59)
Assists Per Game: NOVA (12th, 13.9) ND (1st, 18.7)
Steals Per Game: NOVA (3rd, 8.5) ND (12th, 7.0)
Turnover Margin: NOVA (3rd, +3.88) ND (10, +.1)
Assist/Turnover Ratio: NOVA (13th, 1.0) ND (3rd, 1.4)

Advantage: Notre Dame (12-2-1) over Villanova (2-12-1)

Prediction: Notre Dame blows out Villanova on the road 84-66. Harangody will be held to 15 points and 8 rebounds, but McAlarney will make 6 threes and score 27 points. Notre Dame will have 21 turnovers, but they will still win easily due to Villanova's lack of big men on the bench. I expect to see Tyrone Nash and Tim Abromaitis get playing time in this game as they work their way into the rotation.

Freshman Outlook: Tyrone Nash and Tim Abromaitis are stuck on the depth chart behind Ryan Ayers, Zach Hillesland, and Luke Zeller. Next year, they will get much more playing time as Zach Hillesland will most likely be the starter at power forward. Carleton Scott has been redshirted to give him time to develop his raw talent. He could be phenominal and give Notre Dame a great power forward which they haven't had in a very long time (Troy Murphy was a center).